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County disaster-history profile

Fairfax County, Virginia disaster history

Explore federal administrative declarations and NOAA county-coded observed-event records with their meanings, coverage periods, seasonal patterns, and limitations kept separate.

Data updated Aug 21, 2026 · Sources validated Aug 21, 2026

History, not a forecast

These historical records do not show current danger, future probability, or modeled risk. FEMA declarations and NOAA observed-event reports have different meanings and are never added into a danger score. For current conditions, use the live HazardNow dashboard.

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Two official histories, kept separate

Counts below describe records in each dataset. They do not measure event severity, loss, personal exposure, or the likelihood of a future disaster.

Administrative records

FEMA declaration history

Unique federal disaster declarations that include a county designation. A declaration is a government action, not a complete census of physical events.

Unique FEMA declarations
19
County designation records
19

Coverage: Jan 1, 1964 – Aug 21, 2026

Record categories

  • Winter storm7
  • Hurricane5
  • Severe storm4
  • Biological2
  • Flood1

Same-source state comparison

This county
19
Virginia county median
20

This county count is 1 below the Virginia county median for the same source and coverage period. Based on 133 county equivalents. This is a record-count comparison, not a risk ranking.

Observed-event reports

NOAA observed-event history

Distinct Storm Events records coded to this county. Forecast-zone and marine-zone reports are excluded from these county totals.

Unique NOAA county-event records
1,376

Coverage: Jan 1, 1996 – May 27, 2026

Record categories

  • High wind662
  • Flood517
  • Hail145
  • Tornado19
  • Severe storm17
  • Lightning15
  • Coastal storm1

Same-source state comparison

This county
1,376
Virginia county median
217

This county count is 1,159 above the Virginia county median for the same source and coverage period. Based on 133 county equivalents. This is a record-count comparison, not a risk ranking.

Year-by-year official records

Years appear newest first when at least one source has a record. FEMA administrative declarations and NOAA observed county-event records remain in separate columns and are never added or ranked together.

FEMA administrative records

Unique federal disaster declarations that include this county, grouped by the declaration record’s incident start year. A declaration is a government action, not a physical-event census.

Source: FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · Coverage: Jan 1, 1964 – Aug 21, 2026

NOAA observed-event records

Distinct NOAA Storm Events records explicitly coded to this county, grouped by event start year. Forecast-zone and marine-zone records are excluded from county counts.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database · Coverage: Jan 1, 1996 – May 27, 2026

Annual FEMA unique declaration and NOAA county-event record counts, kept as separate source measures
YearUnique FEMA declarationsNOAA county-event records
202615
2025071
2024020
2023051
2022063
20210141
2020294
20190119
20181118
2017061
2016142
2015063
2014034
2013018
2012138
2011168
2010158
200916
2008071
200709
2006125
2005112
2004011
2003234
2002026
2001025
2000139
1999118
1998014
199706
1996116
199310
197710
197210

History, not a forecast: annual record counts do not measure current danger, future probability, severity, losses, or personal exposure. Differences can also reflect reporting and administrative practices.

When NOAA county-event records began

Monthly counts use only NOAA county-coded observed-event start dates. FEMA declaration dates are excluded. Historical reporting patterns are planning context, not a forecast of what will happen next.

Source: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database · Coverage: Jan 1, 1996 – May 27, 2026

Exact monthly observed-event record counts
MonthRecords
January18
February21
March22
April76
May180
June280
July357
August223
September111
October40
November29
December19

Compare with another county

Compare like-for-like official record counts. FEMA declarations and NOAA observed-event records remain separate and do not form a combined risk score.

Comparing Fairfax County, Virginia with New Castle County, Delaware

Unique FEMA declarations

FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2 · Jan 1, 1964 – Aug 21, 2026

Fairfax County, Virginia
19
New Castle County, Delaware
17

Unique NOAA county-event records

NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database · Jan 1, 1996 – May 27, 2026

Fairfax County, Virginia
1,376
New Castle County, Delaware
776

Comparison updated to New Castle County, Delaware. FEMA: 19 versus 17. NOAA: 1376 versus 776.

Recent representative records by source

These bounded, newest-first lists make official identifiers inspectable. Aggregate totals above come from each validated corpus, not from counting only the records shown here.

FEMA representative declarations

Administrative declaration titles and dates from OpenFEMA.

  13. FEMA administrative declaration

    SEVERE WINTER STORM, RECORD/NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL, HEAVY RAIN,FLOODIND, AND MUDSLIDE

    –

    Official source
    FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2
    Official ID
    FEMA disaster 1458
    Record type
    Severe storm
    Open official record

NOAA representative observed events

County-coded observed-event types and dates from NOAA NCEI Storm Events.

Practical preparedness implications

These actions translate record categories into low-regret planning steps. They are not predictions and do not replace local emergency instructions.

  1. Priority 1

    Prepare for observed high wind events

    High Wind is the most frequently reported NOAA hazard type among 1376 exact county-coded observed events in this profile.

    • Review household alerts, evacuation routes, and insurance coverage for this hazard.
    • Keep a documented communication and reunification plan that works during power or cellular outages.

    Evidence sections: NOAA observed events

  2. Priority 2

    Review declared winter storm history

    Winter Storm is the most frequent hazard category among 19 unique exact-county FEMA declarations in this profile.

    • Review insurance, documentation, and recovery contacts relevant to this declaration category.
    • Learn which local and state assistance channels operate before any federal declaration is made.

    Evidence sections: FEMA declarations

  3. Priority 3

    Use July as a readiness checkpoint

    NOAA records place 357 observed county events in July, the profile's highest observed monthly count.

    • Before this historically high-count month, refresh supplies, medications, contact lists, and alert settings.
    • Recheck transportation and shelter options for people, pets, and accessibility needs.

    Evidence sections: NOAA observed events

  4. Priority 4

    Plan from both observed and declared history

    NOAA event reports describe observed local frequency, while FEMA declarations identify a narrower administrative record of incidents receiving federal declarations.

    • Do not treat the absence of a FEMA declaration as evidence that a damaging local event cannot occur.
    • After an incident, preserve photos, receipts, policy records, and official notices for local, state, insurance, and possible federal processes.

    Evidence sections: FEMA declarations and NOAA observed events

Methodology and profile limitations

A source-separated county history using exact OpenFEMA county designations and NOAA county-coded observed events.

Counting rules

  • FEMA counts one declaration per unique disasterNumber for exact county designations dated 1964 or later.
  • NOAA counts one unique EVENT_ID only when CZ_TYPE=C and the constructed state-plus-county FIPS matches exactly, from 1996 onward.
  • Statewide-only FEMA rows, NOAA forecast zones, and NOAA marine zones are excluded from county metrics.

Comparison rules

  • Each county is compared only with the median of the same source and metric across every county equivalent in its state.
  • The Virginia baseline contains every compatible county equivalent, including zero-count counties if any.

Limitations

  • This atlas publishes source-separated historical records, not a probability of future loss.
  • Records can be revised by their issuing agencies; regeneration selects the newest official NOAA revision for every year.
  • Statewide-only FEMA declarations are disclosed but excluded from exact county metrics.
  • Observed history is not a forecast or modeled risk score.
  • FEMA declarations and NOAA event reports measure different phenomena and are never merged into one event total.

Sources, coverage, and limitations

Each official dataset retains its own meaning, coverage period, freshness, and limitations.

Profile generated:

FEMA OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Current for expected cadence
Coverage period
Jan 1, 1964 – Aug 21, 2026
Completeness
Complete for stated coverage and inclusion rules
Source updated
Retrieved by HazardNow
Expected update cadence
HazardNow refresh target: about weekly
Official dataset pageOpenFEMA API

Coverage notes

  • OpenFEMA v2 exact county designations from 1964 onward; disasterNumber is the unique declaration key.
  • Statewide-only, tribal, and other non-county designations are excluded from county metrics and medians.
  • Current Census county-equivalent FIPS define state comparison baselines; obsolete historical county codes are not reassigned.
  • County-level designation history is most consistently available from 1964 onward.
  • A declaration can designate multiple counties; each designation is a source record, not a separate physical event.

Limitations

  • Federal declarations are administrative actions and do not enumerate every damaging local incident.
  • Statewide-only and tribal designations are intentionally excluded from exact-county counts.
  • Federal declarations are administrative Stafford Act actions and do not capture every damaging local event.
  • Declaration counts should not be presented as forecasts or direct probabilities of future loss.

NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information

Current for expected cadence
Coverage period
Jan 1, 1996 – May 27, 2026
Completeness
Partial for stated coverage or inclusion rules
Source updated
Retrieved by HazardNow
Expected update cadence
HazardNow refresh target: about monthly after source publication
Official dataset pageOfficial bulk files

Coverage notes

  • NCEI Storm Events details files for every year from 1996 through the current available year.
  • Only exact county-coded CZ_TYPE=C records are counted; forecast-zone and marine-zone records are excluded and disclosed.
  • Current Census county-equivalent FIPS define state comparison baselines; obsolete historical county codes are not reassigned.
  • 15 optional damage cells contained a bare K/M/B suffix; those amounts are retained as unknown/null and are never inferred as zero.
  • 1 record had an unrecognized CZ_TYPE and was excluded because it could not be assigned to an exact county geography.
  • The 2026 shard is preliminary; coverage ends at the latest accepted county event present for this state in the selected official revision.
  • Comparable all-event statistics begin in 1996; earlier reporting eras cover only a subset of event types.
  • County profiles count only exact county-coded CZ_TYPE=C records; forecast-zone and marine-zone records are excluded.
  • Finalized Storm Events records typically lag the event month by about 75 to 90 days.

Limitations

  • Storm Events reports are not a complete loss inventory and reporting practices vary over time.
  • Forecast-zone and marine-zone records are excluded because they cannot be assigned exactly to one county.
  • 15 optional archive damage cells contained only a K/M/B suffix, so their dollar amounts remain unknown/null rather than inferred.
  • 1 archive record with an unrecognized CZ_TYPE was excluded rather than attributed to a county.
  • The current-year file is preliminary through the latest event present in its selected official revision.
  • Storm Events is a report database; reporting practices and included event types change over time.
  • Damage estimates and narratives may be incomplete and should retain their source-level caveats.